At the current pace of carbon dioxide emissions, Earth could surpass the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold in just three years — a grim warning from over 60 top climate scientists in a recent global assessment.
Back in 2015, nearly 200 countries pledged to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (late 1800s) under the historic Paris Agreement. The goal was to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. However, ongoing reliance on coal, oil, and gas, along with widespread deforestation, has placed that target in serious jeopardy.
🔥 Rising Emissions, Rising Threats
We’re already seeing the effects of climate change:
- Record-breaking heatwaves, like the UK’s 40°C spike in July 2022
- Rapidly rising sea levels threatening coastal regions
- Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events
“Things are all moving in the wrong direction,” said Professor Piers Forster, lead author and Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds. “We’re witnessing unprecedented changes — both in global temperatures and sea levels — and they’re accelerating.”
⏳ The Shrinking Carbon Budget
At the start of 2020, scientists estimated that humanity had about 500 billion tonnes of CO₂ left to emit for a 50% chance of staying under 1.5°C. By early 2025, that figure dropped to just 130 billion tonnes.
Why the rapid decline?
- Record-high global emissions
- Better scientific modeling of carbon’s climate impact
- Increased emissions from other gases like methane
With current emissions at around 40 billion tonnes per year, the remaining carbon budget could be depleted in three years, potentially locking in a breach of the Paris Agreement goal. While the actual crossing of 1.5°C may not happen immediately, it becomes practically inevitable.
📈 A Dangerous New Normal
In 2024, the planet experienced its first 12-month period with average temperatures more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While a single year doesn’t technically break the Paris Agreement, it’s a warning signal. The current rate of warming is 0.27°C per decade, faster than any period in recorded history.
If emissions remain unchecked, the 1.5°C threshold could be consistently crossed by 2030.
🌱 Can We Reverse It?
In theory, warming could be reversed by removing large amounts of CO₂ from the atmosphere using advanced technologies. But scientists caution against relying on these unproven solutions as a safety net.
“These changes have long been predicted, and they’re directly linked to high emissions,” Prof. Forster emphasized.
🛑 Final Thought
The time to act is now. Suppose the world hopes to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. In that case, urgent and bold action must be taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, protect forests, and accelerate the shift to renewable energy.